Romania’s total market production index (TMPI) rose by 4.2% year-on-year in the third quarter, marking the sharpest jump in seven quarters and outpacing the EU’s 2.1% average growth. In contrast, Q2 had only a 0.3% annual increase. The seasonally adjusted TMPI advanced 1.0% quarter-on-quarter for the fourth straight quarter, driven mainly by solid construction activity and a modest uptick in manufacturing.
The TMPI is a composite gauge created by Eurostat that aggregates four short-term indicators to capture activity across most of the market economy, including industrial production, construction, services, and trade volume. It does not cover agriculture, financial services, or public and quasi-public services.
Within the TMPI components, Romania’s construction volume index surged by 14.1% year-on-year in the quarter, a strong contributor to the overall index, possibly aided by regulatory changes. Manufacturing output rose by 1.1% year-on-year on a largely flat trend over the past year, while retail sales declined by 2.3% year-on-year amid austerity measures following a period of growth.
Eurostat notes that the TMPI and quarterly GDP paths are broadly similar, though divergences become more pronounced as one moves away from the base year. Several methodological factors, beyond the TMPI’s limited coverage, account for these differences.
Using the previous year’s prices (PYP) approach consistent with the TMPI, Romania’s GDP grew 1.6% year-on-year—the strongest annual rate in four quarters. Detailed GDP data show construction value added up 12.1% year-on-year, contributing 0.8 percentage points to the 1.6% growth. Agriculture added 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth after its value added climbed 9.2% year-on-year. Industry’s value added rose by 1.1% year-on-year in Q3 2025, a sign of recovery from persistently subdued levels and contributing 0.2 percentage points to overall annual growth.
Source: iulian@romania-insider.com
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