The Future of USA Swimming Looks Challenging as Predictions Indicate a $1.07 Million Loss in 2025 — What’s Behind the Troubling Turnaround?
Many are surprised—and perhaps even alarmed—by the recent financial outlooks from USA Swimming. Once anticipated to post a modest surplus, the organization now faces the prospect of losing over one million dollars in the upcoming year. But here’s where it gets controversial: What factors have driven this dramatic shift, and what does it reveal about the broader health of competitive swimming in the United States?
During its latest Board of Directors meeting on December 8, USA Swimming revised its fiscal forecasts for 2025. The initial projection had been cautiously optimistic, expecting a surplus of around $99,532. However, by the end of September, this outlook had flipped completely—showing a projected deficit of over $1 million, specifically $1,066,960. This shift marks a notable departure from the previous quarter's estimates, which forecasted a smaller deficit of approximately $315,000.
This accelerating downturn stems mainly from a significant drop in revenue streams, despite some reductions in expenses. At the end of the third quarter, the organization was still reporting a healthy surplus of about $6.3 million, with revenues around $33.3 million compared to expenses of $27 million. But the later projections suggest that the totals at year’s end will be far less favorable, leading to the anticipated $1.07 million deficit.
Let’s take a closer look at the financials:
| Initial Projections | Current Projections | Difference |
|--------------------------|--------------------------|--------------|
| Revenue: $39,749,851 | Revenue: $37,235,560 | -$2,514,291 |
| Expenses: $39,650,319 | Expenses: $38,302,520 | -$1,347,799 |
| Net: $99,532 | Net: -$1,066,960 | -$1,166,492 |
So, what’s behind this increasingly grim financial picture? According to the discussions from the December 8 meeting, several key revenue shortfalls have contributed:
- Partnership marketing revenue is expected to fall short by nearly $1.8 million, partly because TYR—formerly the title sponsor of the Pro Swim Series—no longer holds that role.
- Membership revenue is projected to decline by close to $940,000, driven by fewer registrations than initially forecasted.
- Meet sanction revenue is expected to drop by $75,000, mainly due to lower fees collected for sanctioning events like the Block Party meet.
While expenses have generally been cut compared to previous estimates, the organization still faces notable increases in certain areas—most notably legal costs related to a high-profile lawsuit initiated by the Enhanced Games. Here’s how expenses are shifting across divisions:
- The Commercial division expects to reduce costs by nearly $889,000, through personnel reductions and the elimination of certain publications and productions.
- The Executive division plans to cut approximately $671,000, mainly due to the absence of a permanent CEO.
- The Sport Development division anticipates savings of about $499,000, thanks to lower sanctioning fees and program efficiencies.
- The National Team division shows a very modest decrease in expenses, about $9,500, due to operational efficiencies.
- Conversely, the Business Affairs division faces a dramatic increase—around $575,000—primarily because of legal expenses associated with the lawsuit filed by the Enhanced Games in August.
- Lastly, Event Operations expects to see a slight rise in costs, roughly $237,300, mainly due to additional event-related expenses.
To put this into perspective, looking at the organization’s financial history over previous Olympic cycles reveals a mixed story:
2017-2021 Quad-
- Revenues totaled approximately $176.17 million, with expenses close behind at $174.31 million. Despite a few years of deficits, the quad ended with a slight surplus of nearly $1.86 million, buoyed by a lucrative 2020 Olympics—the event was postponed but still contributed significant income.
2022-2024 Quad-
- Revenues of about $119.68 million, expenses slightly higher at $118.32 million, yielded a final net showing of roughly $1.36 million surplus.
However, if the 2025 projections hold true, this will be the seventh time in the last nine years that USA Swimming is projected to end the year in the red. Interestingly, the only years with actual profits since 2017 were Olympic years (2020 and 2024), emphasizing how critical Olympic cycles are for financial stability.
And here’s the big question: With ongoing legal battles, sponsorship changes, and decreasing revenue streams, is USA Swimming’s financial model sustainable in the long run? Or are these setbacks merely the surface of deeper organizational challenges? And perhaps most provocatively—could this financial decline influence the future of competitive swimming or even spark industry-wide debates about governance and funding?
What’s your take? Do you see these issues as temporary hurdles or signs of a more fundamental shift? We invite you to share your perspective and join the conversation below.
